The percentage increases to 50% for employers who are “very aware” of the new law.

The White House estimates that the number is too high. A study by the Congressional Budget Office, the number to 7%.

Difference between the two studies may be the result of what is being measured. McKinsey’s study outlines the employers and employees speak the CBO study. Many large employers may consider health insurance and small employers would probably drop it.

The law requires employers to provide insurance for low-income or part-time workers, who might not otherwise be heard.

If successful, the program can also provide much needed fiscal relief to States like Connecticut, where Medicaid pays for long-term care for the poor and disabled, is an essential element of the budget exploded.

His supporters say the new insurance initiative, established under the Federal Health Care Reform Act, it is potentially transformative. But critics say it is seriously flawed and will almost certainly fail. And even then the interest groups lined up to affect the parameters of the program – the premiums, benefits and other components – the Republicans in Congress have targeted set aside.

The issue is called “Class Act”, the abbreviation for the Community Living Assistance and Support Services.

It seeks to address all the worst nightmares doctor diagnosed a chronic debilitating condition, private insurance does not cover long-term.

Both multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer’s disease or stroke that limits mobility, these conditions can be financially devastating.

“How the prospect of living in a nursing home at age 50, then after a good race for you?” asked William Minnix, president of LeadingAge, an advocacy group that represents nursing homes, nonprofit, assisted living and other facilities. “And then when you exhaust your assets and sell your home, leave something to your children?”

Americans increasingly face this desperate situation. Currently, there are 10 million Americans who need support services to long term.

“As America ages, that number is steadily increasing, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius told a forum on Monday, long-term care.

“In 2020, it is expected that 15 million Americans have some type of services for long term,” he said. “We know that one in six who reach the age of 65 spend more than $ 100,000 per year in long-term care.”

However, now, “said Sebelius, who want to plan for these needs have little choice.

Patients can pay out of pocket, but the costs of nursing home approximately $ 75,000 per year, and home helps run an average of $ 18 per hour. Individuals can purchase private insurance long term care, but the premiums are expensive and some insurance companies offer these policies even more.

The third option, which is too conventional for many middle class families is that they burn through their personal savings to almost nothing remains. Then they are poor enough to qualify for Medicaid, and the cost of their care is taken jointly by the state government and federal authorities.

“We have a situation that threatens the requirements,” Sebelius said at a forum Monday sponsored by the Kaiser Family Foundation. “If nothing changes, we will see more and more [patients] being forced into a dependent living situation against their will or forced to empty their savings to pay for the services and supports they need to live independently.”

Neither is sustainable. Medicaid now spends a third of its budget – more than $ 100 billion a year – is a service of long-term care. This price is a sale difficult in this current climate in the country, the Council seeks to close budget holes with his mouth open.

Enter the Class Act, a revolutionary proponents and critics say it is another federal law in the making.

Under the law class, which was part of the health care reform, HHS is working now to establish a federal long-term program of voluntary insurance options is open to working adults, who pay the premiums set by HHS. If you become disabled, the program pays a small benefit in terms of their daily needs, to cover the support that they can remain in their communities.

With the decline in premiums for private insurance plan, proponents argue, will make the long-term insurance more attractive to both sick and healthy alike. The benefits are more flexible than those of Medicaid, because the control of consumer spending and may opt for health services at home and not go to a nursing home.

“This is a highly anticipated national mechanism, we can use to plan the future,” said Mercedes Witowsky, a plea in New Jersey for the disabled, whose daughter had a massive attack when she was 16.

Witowsky private insurance cover to his daughter in the hospital and part of his rehabilitation after a stroke. But it does not cover long-term costs for health care at home to help him get dressed, bathed, and through it every day. Now 21 and in college, she argues that the daughter of Medicaid assistance.

Like many, Witowsky, who also spoke Monday in Kaiser forum, never imagined she would be in the long term health insurance for themselves, let alone her teenage daughter. Only about 7 million Americans currently without insurance long term care.

“Anyone who does not want to think or to think” I am confident “or” I have no health insurance, “Minnix said.” People do not realize the limitations of current coverage. ”

Medicare does not cover long-term nursing home services. And private insurance is not usually either. Similarly, or generally pays for home care and help individuals with disabilities to live independently. Medicaid has even seriously restrict the long-term care coverage.

Minnix program called the class “one of the most revolutionary” elements of health reform. “Families increasingly are recognizing that this could happen to anyone, so it is something that makes sense to guard against, “he said.

But critics say the program is poorly designed and will end up costing taxpayers billions of dollars.

“Design problem No. 1 is interesting for those who need to benefit,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office and now president of the American Conservative Action Network Forum.

If only the sick and the disabled buy programs, he said, the insurance does not cover the costs of treatment. He is also concerned that HHS to set premiums too low to attract the participation of cheating the health insurance before you go.

And finally, said participants begin to realize how small are the benefits, Congress “will be tempted to inflate the program and build a large new law.

Holtz-Eakin have not disputed that there is a problem. But he said that what is needed is a more robust private insurance market in the long term. Currently, he said, Medicaid “crowd out” private competitors.

Admitted that there are no easy solutions and the problem can only grow.

“Most long-term services are included at this stage, usually by family members, especially women, he said.” And given the demographics – the elderly are more women living longer and more work – the problem will get worse before it gets better. ”

He and other Republicans have urged Congress to target CLASS repealing the law, and legislation is already in the bill hopper to do so.

Howard Gleckman, a researcher at the Urban Institute and author of the book, “Caring for our parents,” agrees that the program of the class is not well designed.

“I fear that the relatively unhealthy will be recruited, and if that happens that will drive up premiums, he said, creating a” death spiral “where only people who know they need buy it, making it “a system that is completely unaffordable.”

However, the repeal of the measure is not the way forward “, he said,” because then what remains is the Medicaid system, which is not sustainable. ”

He said that although the error, the program is a good first step. And, if done correctly and treatable, will help solve the looming crisis of long-term care. For example, he said, if there are incentives for employers to get employees enrolled in it would be a good way to expand the pool of insurance.

In his speech Monday Sebelius, acknowledged these concerns and said the class is “far from perfect.” But as officials begin the HHS to implement the program, said the agency will use the “flexibility” in the law to ensure a successful and solvent.

If they do, he said, “many Americans need to clean up their savings” to get the care they need.

If only that were so. Nobody who tracks health insurance sees any sign of softening premium prices for people who already have insurance, Obamacare or not. Premiums for 2010 were up 10% and are predicted to keep growing at the same rate in coming years.

Health insurance is beginning to resemble air travel–where deep-pocketed business passengers subsidize penny-pinching vacationers. Insurance companies, under the measures in Congress, would be forced to take all comers, young and old, healthy and sick.

Over ten years they would confront $871 billion in spending on uninsured and newly subsidized customers, costs that would be passed along to the young and healthy. The federal government isn’t going to pick up all of that tab. So those now insured through a private plan at work or one bought individually will have to chip in.

If you’re thinking the legislation will tamp down overall health care spending, reconsider. Policy analysts ranging from the neutral Congressional Budget Office to the HMO lobby see no abatement in the growth rate of health care spending.

That sector of the economy is growing at a 7.4% annual rate, says actuarial firm Milliman. Medicare’s chief actuary, Richard Foster, thinks that the Senate bill would expand health spending by $234 billion above current projections.

The premium hikes will result from cost shifting, better known as passing the buck. The House and Senate insurance bills aim to cover their costs in part by cutting annual Medicare reimbursements to hospitals, doctors and drug companies by $45 billion.